Zelensky’s rating plummeted. “Servant of the people” loses leadership

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Петр Порошенко

If the presidential elections were held in the near future, then Volodymyr Zelenskyy would receive 19.1% of the votes among all respondents and 24.7% among those who made their choice. A month ago, his support was 25.4% and 33.3%, respectively.

According to the KIIS survey data, 12.1% of all respondents and 15.6% of those who made their choice are ready to vote for the fifth president, Petro Poroshenko (a month ago it was 12.8% and 16.8%, respectively).

In third place is the leader of the Batkivshchyna VO Yulia Tymoshenko with indicators of 9.4% and 12.2% (a month ago, 7.8% and 10.3%, respectively).

Next come the leader of the Opposition Platform – For Life, Yuriy Boyko (7.3% and 9.4%), leader of the Strength and Honor party, Igor Smeshko (6% and 7.8%), and former speaker of parliament Dmitry Razumkov (5 , 5% and 7.1%), Evgeny Muraev (4.8% and 6.2%), Vladimir Groisman (4.1% and 5.3%), Oleg Lyashko (4.0% and 5.1% ), Viktor Medvedchuk (2.3% and 2.9%), Oleg Tyagnibok (1.0% and 1.3%), Kira Rudik (0.6% and 0.8%).

For the first time, “Servant of the People” lost its leadership in the ranking of parties, and the first place was taken by European Solidarity. Aleksey Garan, professor of political science at the Kiev-Mohyla Academy, analyzed the electoral sentiments and prospects of the former “servants” on Radio NV.

“It used to be a trio [of parties] with almost the same result: Servant of the People, European Solidarity and HLS. Now the rating of “servants” has fallen still. And now these are four parties within the margin of error – Batkivshchyna has been added. <…> This suggests that the rating of the “servants” has dropped dramatically. We remember that in the 2019 elections they had 43%. This means that after the next parliamentary elections there will be no mono-majority, ”Garan said.

The presidential office, according to the political scientist, is trying to discipline the Servant of the People faction in parliament, and therefore excludes some of its members from the party.

“The demonstrative flogging [of the now former speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, Dmitry] Razumkov, was an attempt to show who was the boss. This gave Razumkov electoral points. <…> On June 1, Razumkov had an indicator of 3%, and now it is 7%. At the same time, [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky’s [rating] is sagging, because as of June 1 it was 27%, now it is 25%, “the political scientist analyzes.

However, Garan added, the political prospects of Razumkov and other former “servants of the people” are still unclear.

“Razumkov’s personal rating began to grow. How long this trend will continue is difficult to say. Now he was at the center of the scandal in the Rada, it was covered by everyone. This must be converted into party support if he creates a new party project. We must approach each of those who have been expelled from the Servant of the People faction on an individual basis, because those who find themselves outside the faction are very different. For example, [People’s Deputy Alexander] Dubinsky is Kolomoisky’s man, and he feels good anyway. [Former “servant” Lyudmila] Buimister, as far as it is understood, is somehow connected with Akhmetov. There are other people there, whose further political fate is not entirely clear, ”the political scientist is convinced.

The KIIS poll showed that 13.9% of all respondents are ready to vote for the EU and 15.7% among those who made their choice. The servant of the people is supported by 13.7% and 15.5% of the respondents, respectively. In VO Batkivshchyna, support was established at the level of 12% and 13.6%, respectively, and in HLS – 11.5% and 13%.

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The survey was conducted on October 15-18 by the method of computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile telephone numbers (random generation of telephone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting). In total, 1200 respondents were interviewed living in all regions of Ukraine (except for the Autonomous Republic of Crimea). The sample is representative of the adult population (aged 18 and over) in Ukraine. In Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the survey was conducted only in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.

The statistical error of the sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) does not exceed 3.2% for indicators close to 50%, 2.7% for indicators close to 25%, 2.1% – for indicators close to 12%, 1.4% – for indicators close to 5%.